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Who lifts the trophy?
Probabilities from 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the full tournament, powered by an international Elo built on 150 years of results.
★ Match of the round · Round of 16Fri · 18:00
ARG
Argentina
46%
Argentina to win
model confidence
CPV
Cape Verde
1.5-1.1expected goals52%over 2.5 goals1-1most likely score90% ARGto advance
Knockout matches - full predictions
21:00FriCOLColombiaGHAGhanaRound of 16COL 88% to advance1-1
146%X27%227%
18:00SatPARParaguayFRAFranceRound of 16FRA 79% to advance1-1
146%X27%227%
18:00SunBRABrazilNORNorwayRound of 16BRA 64% to advance1-1
146%X27%227%
21:00SunMEXMexicoENGEnglandRound of 16MEX 54% to advance1-1
146%X27%227%
18:00MonPORPortugalESPSpainRound of 16ESP 63% to advance1-1
146%X27%227%
Probability of winning the title
1FRAFrance18.2%
2ESPSpain17.4%
3ARGArgentina17.2%
4BRABrazil7.8%
5ENGEngland6.8%
6PORPortugal6.2%
7MEXMexico5.8%
8MARMorocco5.2%
9COLColombia5.1%
10SUISwitzerland2.7%
AI-generated predictions for informational and educational purposes. Not betting advice.